Simultaneous Occurrence of Banking Debt and Currency Crises (Triple Crises) in Iranian Economy and Its Determining Factors During the Period 1980-2017

In monetary and financial literature, financial crises include a wide range of crises. But in general, there are three important types of financial crisis, including the currency crisis. The banking crisis and the debt crisis. The aim of this study is to simultaneously analyze the occurrence of banking, debt and currency crises, known as the three crises in Iran. For this purpose, first to determine the indicators related to banking crises, currency and debt payments and using logistics and self-regression vector models during the 1980 to 2017 seasonally, we have discussed the relationship between these three crises. The results show that the three banking crises, debt and currency, affect each other. The short-term results of the VAR model showed the effect of the banking crisis and the currency crisis on the debt crisis is positive and significant, indicating an increase in the likelihood of a banking crisis and the currency will increase the debt of the government and the country. Also, the effects of banking and debt crises on the currency crisis are positive and significant. This indicates the existence of causal relationship between banking crises and debt on the currency crisis. The results of the Logit model show that the effect of inflation variables, liquidity growth and the growth of the exchange rate on the indicators of the three crises that are significant and positive in most models.